As the last post was getting as long as a Lambyseries post (check him out at highlevelgaming.wordpress.com) I guess I should split this thing in two parts.
What I have covered:
1. Measuring the pros and cons of going against Sniper plays
2. Reading Abyss-sphere plays if you don't have the MST.
3. Reading a Moulin-glace drop with similarity to Dark Armed Dragon.
I actually think I didn't do a very good job with the previous post so I'll elaborate on all of them.
When the Pike searches Sniper, the most instinctive thing to do is to leave it with no targets to destroy upon its drop. This is actually BAD. Sniper is an attacker who can swing for potentially 3600 with the Troops thingy. Rather, to counter Sniper, chainable backrow, Sangan and other shennanigans that net advantage or no loss (Necro Gardna, Vayu) should be used.
Abyss-sphere is rarely utilised properly, as everyone thinks it's some unwritten law to call Linde and let Sphere destroy it. Abyss-sphere enables Synchro and Exceed plays, as well as being able to call the discard outlets in Megalo and Pike. Based on the monster summoned, and your present board, the hand of the opponent becomes easier to read.
For example, if he calls Pike to clear a monster with Infantry, it is likely he is going for a Gungnir play with Genex Controller, or a Bahamut Shark play with Dragoons, why so? By clearing the monster, the board is open and if he could do the same by summoning a Megalo into Infantry into Sniper or Diva, that board would look more menancing than just a lone Pike and potentially swing for more damage. The arguement that he is saving the Megalo for later use is to me, invalid, as the only difference would the additional 2 discard and search, the Megalo being in the deck, and the only tutor for it being Dragoons, allow Dragoons to search for a more advantageous play, such as a Diva search.
Moulin-glace is very annoying to play against, so 1 for 1 removal is (obviously) the best answer for mofos like it, whenever the graveyard is at 5 WATER, it is best to use as much of your hand as possible or attempt to manipulate his graveyard. However, sometimes allowing the Moulin drop is fine if you can remove it, as 2 cards for one of your opponent's Battle Phase could be worth it depending on your situation.
Now on to the new stuff.
Mermail requires you to actually have the stuff to do anything with it, the only one card engines in it being Diva and Undine. Without the Atlanteans, the discard outlets in Mermail essentially become dead, as such, when a Mermail is not tutoring his ass off, it is likely that all 8 of the Atlanteans in his deck are not in his hand, or the ones that he has does not conform to the board you present him.
Against Mermail, their actions, if they are good and understand the deck, will tell you at the very least, what is NOT in their hand. The threatening Mermail backrow are predictable anyway such as Sphere, Torrential and maybe Dimensional Prison, as such, when the windows to activate such cards appear and there is no response, it is likely to be either an MST or a fake.
More importantly is the issue of Linde, as far as possible, do not let it's effect go off. Compulsory Evacuation Device is a good answer for this. Despite it being in terms of advantage a -1, it is actually more of a plus if the player opened with it. This being that next turn, if he sets the Linde again, that he has no plays to make if the Linde does not go off, which also = no Sphere in backrow, as he would have activated it to start his plays going.
Of course, if you can main any of the hard counters to the deck such as Raiou or Macro, it will also give you a significant advantage in the game, as all their engines become dead and they are forced to play beatdown. Bear in mind though that Mermail are more than capable of playing beatdown, with monsters like Dragoons and Sniper allowing good damage for minimal commitment.
The most important aspect of the Mermail game is the hand size though. Even a large numbers, knowing that 1 of it is a Genex Controller would reduce the probability of a big Megalo play or any other play for that matter, the minimal number of cards in hand to run a fully optimal play is 2 (Megalo + Salvage), but clearing a Megalo is an instant -3 to hand size, with the +1 from Sphere being visible advantage, the knowledge than one of his hand cards is not a WATER monster is vital in reading furthur plays from the Mermail player.
I think I may have missed some, but ya I am better at answering questions directly. Also this is simply my opinion from playing Mermail and what I believe and understand the playstyle of the deck should be.
TL;DR Clear Megalo drop, watch hand size decrease, feel safe. Don't kill Linde
